In a previous article, we tried to use statistics from former Royal Rumbles to try and predict this year’s event. Whilst maths alone couldn’t possibly have predicted we’d get one of the most entertaining, exciting and mood-capturing “fans vs. management” car crashes in recent memory, we did get a few things right… and a few things wrong.
Who Will Win?
Our Prediction: Number Twenty-Nine
Reality: Number Twenty-Eight
We said this would be the easiest to predict, and we were… wrong. So close, but yet so far, Batista entered just before the usual post-F winning numbers of 29 and 30. This is only the second time number 28 has ever won the Rumble. Who was the first? Batista in 2005. Considering how well known the result was in advance, we probably should have seen that one coming.
Who Will Come Second?
Our Prediction: Number Thirty
Reality: Number Fifteen
This one was a real anomaly. We predicted, with some certainty, that the runner up would enter at number twenty or later, and we were leaning toward the higher twenties. Nothing suggested we should expect a runner up to enter in the teens.
When Will The Surprise Entrants Turn Up?
Our Prediction: Number Twenty-One
Reality: Numbers Fourteen, Seventeen and Twenty Four
We’ll be honest, this was always going to be a bit of a guess. We openly admitted there’s no real pattern to the traditional surprise returns, although we did say they tend to happen in the late teens and early twenties, which was correct for two out of the three.
Who’s Most Likely To Die Next?
Our Prediction: Number Eleven
Reality: Who knows?
Number eleven was Dean Ambrose, so I think, given his age, intelligence and health, that we can assume we were completely wrong about this one.
Who Will Last The Longest?
Our Prediction: Number One
Reality: Number One
Another easy pick, and another correct one. CM Punk is now the ninth first entrant to last the longest, a tradition that has gone unbroken since 2010.
How Long Will They Last?
Our Prediction: 41 Minutes
Reality: 49 Minutes
Close, but no cigar. As we said, this now marks the first point in WWF/E history in which a decade has contained five Rumbles, and not a single entrant has lasted over an hour. That said, Punk came extremely close to breaking the record for the 2010s, which was set last year, at 50 minutes, by Dolph Ziggler. Punk also did better than average, not only for the current decade, which has an average longest run of 38 minutes, but also for the Rumble in general, which has an average longest run of 44 minutes, so well done CM Punk.
Who Will Last The Shortest?
Our Prediction: Number Fifteen
Reality: Number Twenty-Four
We admitted this one was a bit of a punt, and we also now have to admit that we got it spectacularly wrong. Although we guestimated number fifteen, we were relatively confident of something between the tenth and twentieth entrant. For those of you who didn’t watch, or have short memories, this year’s honours went to JBL.
How Long Will They Last?
Our Prediction: 24 Seconds
Reality: 21 Seconds
Ouch, so close. JBL’s 21 second appearance is below average, in terms of the shortest lasting run, for both his decade (27 seconds) and the Rumble in general (22 seconds). Call us desperate, but I think, when we’re talking about a matter of seconds, we’re going to take a three second margin as a win.
Our Final Score: 2 out of 8
Better luck next year maths.